Wolverhampton 14:00 — Value Analysis
Download The At The Races App Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Bath Summer Sprint Series Qualifier)
Wednesday 26 August 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SUB THIRTEEN is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 21% vs the market's 36% — it may be beatable.
Won last time and sits nicely in the weights, suggesting strong claims here. Yet to be tested against much but backed by Carroll's strong record with first-timers, though 69 days demands proof of fitness.
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
- ✓ Nicely in at the weights
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ First run for 69 days - fitness to prove
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BRIDGETS BABY
★ Top Rated
3.5
·market 29%
|
31% |
29% |
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+9% | |
| 2 |
SUB THIRTEEN
2.8
·market 36%
|
21% |
36% |
2.8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-42% | |
| 3 |
FANCY DANCER
5.0
·market 20%
|
13% |
20% |
5.0
|
-33% | |
| 4 |
RAJETERIAT
12.0
·market 8%
|
12% |
8% |
12.0
|
+48% | |
| 5 |
SIXCOR
10.0
·market 10%
|
12% |
10% |
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+18% | |
| 6 |
NAD ALSHIBA SNOW
13.0
·market 8%
|
9% |
8% |
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+15% | |
| 7 |
DUSK DAMSEL
34.0
·market 3%
|
7% |
3% |
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+128% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org