Catterick 14:15 — Value Analysis

Yorkshire Dales Distillery/EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes(for Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Wednesday 26 August 2026

Maiden GD 5.0f Class 4 9 runners
Model's most likely ROMIDIJO 32% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value ROMIDIJO model 32% vs market 27% · +19%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MUGHEER is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 5% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates ROMIDIJO top (32% chance)

Sam James and Charlie Clover strike at 100%, backed by James's strong 15% rate in the last two months. Ran well two runs back and is proven at this level, though the trip presents a question mark.

  • ✓ Preferred to Shaniko, better proven at this class and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Sam James and Charlie Clover win 100% together
  • ✓ Sam James riding well, 15% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ROMIDIJO ★ Top Rated
J: Sam James · T: Charlie Clover
3.8 ·market 27%
32%
27%
3.8
 +19%
2
SHANIKO
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Craig Lidster
3.0 ·market 33%
11%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -68%
3
NORTH COATES
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
17.0 ·market 6%
8%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +43%
4
SCOTTYS ROCKET
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Brian Ellison
34.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +162%
5
GHAZALIA
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Hilal Kobeissi
10.0 ·market 10%
5%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%
6
PURRISTA
J: Connor Beasley · T: Gemma Tutty
21.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +11%
7
MUGHEER
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
1.8 ·market 55%
5%
55%
1.8
 -91%
8
REDROSECASTANA
J: Mark Winn · T: Christopher Kellett
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +153%
9
NEVERBEATDESWALKER
J: Jack Garritty · T: Mark Walford
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -49%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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