Wolverhampton 14:30 — Value Analysis

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Wednesday 26 August 2026

Novice Stakes STD 6.0f Class 5 12 runners
Model's most likely MY MARIA 24% model chance · market 25%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: LOVELY DARK ANGEL is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 16% vs the market's 58% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates MY MARIA top (24% chance)

Preferred to Hes Readytorumble for its superior trip suitability, and Watson readies first-timers at 12%. Solid claims at this level, though Mangan is cold at 7% in the fortnight and the yard is quiet at 6% in the last two months.

  • ✓ Preferred to Hes Readytorumble, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Gina Mangan cold lately, 7% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Archie Watson's yard quiet lately, 6% in the last two months

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MY MARIA ★ Top Rated
J: Gina Mangan · T: Archie Watson
4.0 ·market 25%
24%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
2
HES READYTORUMBLE
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Jack Channon
5.5 ·market 18%
17%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
3
LOVELY DARK ANGEL
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: George Boughey
1.7 ·market 58%
16%
58%
1.7
▼ Edge decreasing
 -72%
4
MR MONTGOMERY
J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Ollie Sangster
23.0 ·market 4%
9%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +103%
5
HIRAM BINGHAM
J: Jonny Peate · T: Michael Bell
34.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
34.0
 +122%
—
MARHABA YA TAYIB NR
J: David Probert · T: Richard Hughes
— ·market —
5%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
6
VENTURA POWER
J: Megan Smith(7) · T: George Boughey
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +46%
7
NIL SATIS SUPREME
J: Hope Regan(7) · T: Mark Loughnane
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +115%
8
REDDY
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -47%
9
SOLAR MISSION
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Georgina Nicholls
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +42%
10
PREMIUM SEAT
J: Millie Wonnacott(5) · T: J S Moore
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
 +33%
11
LAUNCHPAD
J: Ryan Kavanagh(3) · T: Nick Littmoden
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +58%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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