Navan 13:44 — Value Analysis

Navan Racecourse Nursery Handicap

Thursday 27 August 2026

Nursery GTF 6.0f Class 0 8 runners
Model's most likely SUPREME LORD 27% model chance · market 35%
★ Best value PRINCE OF PEPPARD model 19% vs market 15% · +26%
Why the model rates SUPREME LORD top (27% chance)

Ticks most boxes for Dylan Browne McMonagle's hot hand — well rated, bang on the 6f trip, and a proven record at this level from stall five, though still untested against stronger opposition.

  • ✓ Preferred to Howlin Wolf, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
1
SUPREME LORD ★ Top Rated
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Robson De Aguiar
2.9 ·market 35%
27%
35%
2.9
-23%
2
HOWLIN WOLF
J: James Ryan · T: Jack W Davison
4.3 ·market 23%
22%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
-5%
4
SOMEDAY SOMEWHERE
J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Stephen Thorne
4.3 ·market 23%
14%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
-41%
5
TWO BRIGADE
J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan
9.0 ·market 11%
12%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
+4%
6
LUCYS PROMISE
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
+38%
7
LITTLE DIVA
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: T G McCourt
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
+82%
8
NO TIME FAULTS
J: Rory Cleary · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
+291%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org