Navan 13:44 — Value Analysis
Navan Racecourse Nursery Handicap
Thursday 27 August 2026
Ticks most boxes for Dylan Browne McMonagle's hot hand — well rated, bang on the 6f trip, and a proven record at this level from stall five, though still untested against stronger opposition.
- ✓ Preferred to Howlin Wolf, better suited by the trip
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Record at this level stands out
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SUPREME LORD
★ Top Rated
2.9
·market 35%
|
27% |
35% |
2.9
|
-23% | |
| 2 |
HOWLIN WOLF
4.3
·market 23%
|
22% |
23% |
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-5% | |
| 3 |
PRINCE OF PEPPARD
6.5
·market 15%
|
19% |
15% |
6.5
|
+26% | |
| 4 |
SOMEDAY SOMEWHERE
4.3
·market 23%
|
14% |
23% |
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-41% | |
| 5 |
TWO BRIGADE
9.0
·market 11%
|
12% |
11% |
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+4% | |
| 6 |
LUCYS PROMISE
15.0
·market 7%
|
9% |
7% |
15.0
|
+38% | |
| 7 |
LITTLE DIVA
34.0
·market 3%
|
5% |
3% |
34.0
|
+82% | |
| 8 |
NO TIME FAULTS
81.0
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+291% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org