Carlisle 14:00 — Value Analysis

Paul Kavanagh Memorial AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Jockeys With Three Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)

Thursday 27 August 2026

Amateur GD 9.0f Class 5 9 runners
Model's most likely EPIDAVROS 24% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value EPIDAVROS model 24% vs market 18% · +34%
Why the model rates EPIDAVROS top (24% chance)

Preferred to rivals for trip suitability at one-mile-one with sound recent form and our rating supporting claims, but that recent winless run and the yard's quiet spell temper what remains an unconvincing case.

  • ✓ Preferred to Jewel Maker, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Best suited to the 1m1f in the race
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Katie Scott's yard quiet lately, 9% in the last two months
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
EPIDAVROS ★ Top Rated
J: Mr Freddie Robson · T: Katie Scott
5.5 ·market 18%
24%
18%
5.5
 +34%
2
JEWEL MAKER
J: Miss Rebecca Burley · T: Tim Easterby
8.5 ·market 12%
13%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +14%
3
SANAFI ZABEEL
J: Miss Kayleigh Williams · T: Jim Goldie
3.5 ·market 29%
13%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -55%
4
ON THE BUBBLE
J: Miss Kayla Ruddy(3) · T: Gary Rutherford
26.0 ·market 4%
11%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +188%
5
SPIRIT CATCHER
J: Mr Daniel Perrin(3) · T: Philip Kirby
6.0 ·market 17%
10%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -38%
6
TITIAN
J: Mr Jack Loughnane(3) · T: Julie Camacho
10.0 ·market 10%
8%
10%
10.0
 -23%
7
PEDRO THE POET
J: Mr Harvey James(3) · T: Nicky Richards
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
8
UP THE JAZZ
J: Miss Isla Clarkson(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
5.5 ·market 18%
6%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -69%
9
EAGLES DREAM
J: Mrs Tracy Gundry(3) · T: Tristan Davidson
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +14%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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