Navan 14:14 — Value Analysis

Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Handicap

Thursday 27 August 2026

Other Handicap GTF 6.0f Class 0 14 runners
Model's most likely COOL AZUL 24% model chance · market 31%
★ Best value SOVEREIGN CRY model 18% vs market 13% · +33%
Why the model rates COOL AZUL top (24% chance)
  • ✓ A Oliver readies first-timers, 6% with debutants
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
COOL AZUL ★ Top Rated
J: W J Lee · T: A Oliver
3.2 ·market 31%
24%
31%
3.2
 -22%
2
SOVEREIGN CRY
J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Daniel James Murphy
7.5 ·market 13%
18%
13%
7.5
 +33%
3
AMIATA
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
 +12%
4
ALL THE GIRLS
J: James Ryan · T: T G McCourt
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
 +6%
5
BACK DOWN UNDER
J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Padraig Roche
10.0 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.0
 -1%
6
GOTTA CATCHEM ALL
J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: H Rogers
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -28%
7
JON RIGGENS
J: Ben Coen · T: Edward Lynam
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
 -31%
8
MARY SHOELACES
J: Jessica O'Gorman(7) · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
19.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +41%
9
ALFRED TENNYSON
J: Sam Coen(5) · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
15.0 ·market 7%
6%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%
10
BY THE LAKE
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Derek McCormack
21.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +2%
11
FLAMING RIB
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
 -43%
12
SMOKE THEM OUT
J: Sadhbh Tormey(7) · T: T G McCourt
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
 -3%
13
TORNADO KISS
J: Andrew Slattery · T: Andrew Slattery
19.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
14
SPORTING HERO
J: Jamie Orr(7) · T: William Durkan
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
 +16%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org