Sandown 14:25 — Value Analysis

Killik Nursery Handicap Stakes

Friday 28 August 2026

Nursery GD 5.0f Class 4 8 runners
Model's most likely INNICHEN 30% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value INNICHEN model 30% vs market 29% · +6%
Why the model rates INNICHEN top (30% chance)

Young improver with winning form in his last six outings and ideally suited to the trip; dropping into a notably easier race, he remains well treated despite a lapse last time out.

  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 5f
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
BETTY BOOP
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Richard Hughes
4.3 ·market 23%
16%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
-31%
3
SKY SECRET
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
7.5 ·market 13%
15%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
+10%
4
TRUE CHARM
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Lemos De Souza
13.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
+31%
5
ARABICA QUEEN
J: Jason Watson · T: Jonathan Portman
7.0 ·market 14%
9%
14%
7.0
-40%
6
ROTELLE
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes
10.0 ·market 10%
7%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
-32%
7
HOLI SCARLETT
J: Sean Levey · T: Stuart Williams
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
-28%
8
UNDERCOVER AFFAIR
J: Billy Loughnane · T: David Evans
8.5 ·market 12%
5%
12%
8.5
-58%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org