Thirsk 14:13 — Value Analysis

AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Riders With 3 Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)

Friday 28 August 2026

Amateur GD 8.0f Class 6 11 runners
Model's most likely DEEP SLEEP 27% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value DEEP SLEEP model 27% vs market 18% · +46%
Why the model rates DEEP SLEEP top (27% chance)
  • ✓ James Owen's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ First run for 74 days - fitness to prove
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DEEP SLEEP ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Ruby Criscuolo · T: James Owen
5.5 ·market 18%
27%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +46%
2
HATAMOTO
J: Miss Rebecca Burley · T: Tim Easterby
5.0 ·market 20%
19%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
3
HARSWELL RIVER
J: Miss Sophie Dobson · T: Roger Fell
17.0 ·market 6%
13%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +126%
4
TEES GEORGE
J: Mr Jack Lander · T: Adrian Nicholls
6.0 ·market 17%
12%
17%
6.0
 -28%
5
MISEMERALD
J: Miss Natasha Cookson · T: Philip Kirby
5.0 ·market 20%
10%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -48%
6
SANDRET
J: Liam Baxter · T: Sam England
13.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +14%
7
JUNGLE KNIGHT
J: Mr Harry Rimell(3) · T: Mark Rimell
8.5 ·market 12%
8%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
8
DANDYS ANGEL
J: Mr Freddie Robson · T: John Wainwright
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
 +25%
9
TROPEZ POWER
J: Miss Alice Cooke · T: Mark Walford
11.0 ·market 9%
4%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51%
10
CALAXY
J: Mr Jack Loughnane(3) · T: Mark Loughnane
30.5 ·market 3%
4%
3%
30.5
 +17%
11
SUZETTE
J: Mr William Pearman · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
23.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -26%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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