Curragh 13:18 — Value Analysis

John Ormonde Wexford Sand Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden

Saturday 29 August 2026

Maiden GD 8.0f Class 0 16 runners
🏁 Result: Darkness Falls won (SP 1.67)
Model's most likely DARKNESS FALLS 26% model chance · market 59%
★ Best value ALBANY COUNTY model 24% vs market 22% · +8%
Why the model rates DARKNESS FALLS top (26% chance)
  • ✓ Ryan Moore and A P O'Brien win 34% together
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ A P O'Brien readies first-timers, 13% with debutants
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DARKNESS FALLS ★ Top Rated
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
1.7 ·market 59%
26%
59%
1.7
▼ Edge decreasing
 -56% Winner
2
ALBANY COUNTY
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
4.5 ·market 22%
24%
22%
4.5
 +8% 2nd
3
TEDS TURN
J: Gary Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy
24.5 ·market 4%
16%
4%
24.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +300%market disagrees 5th
4
HIGHEST ORDER
J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: G M Lyons
176.0 ·market 1%
9%
1%
176.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1509%market disagrees 11th
5
ROMAYAN
J: Jamie Powell · T: J P Murtagh
126.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +943%market disagrees 6th
—
ROCK ON JOHNNY NR
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness
101.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
101.0
 +441%market disagrees Withdrawn
6
CLUSTER
J: Colin Keane · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
9.0 ·market 11%
5%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -53% 3rd
7
KINGDOM OF CAMELOT
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
17.0 ·market 6%
5%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -21% 4th
8
PAUL PIERRE
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
15.0 ·market 7%
4%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -43% 8th
9
ADVERSITY
J: W J Lee · T: Miss Natalia Lupini
8.0 ·market 12%
3%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -73% 10th
10
CMON NOW THE VIEW
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Garry Caldwell
401.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
401.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1132%market disagrees 13th
—
NOUVEAU GREY NR
J: Shane Foley · T: Ross O'Sullivan
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -8% Withdrawn
—
SILK TWIST NR
J: N G McCullagh · T: Thomas Mullins
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +62% Withdrawn
11
A I NATION
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +88% 7th
12
LUMIEREBLEU
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J P Murtagh
101.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +120% 12th
13
MOON SAND
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +202% 9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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