Goodwood 13:25 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Saturday 29 August 2026

Novice Stakes GTF 8.0f Class 2 13 runners

🏁 Result: Silverella won (SP 15.0)

Model's most likely MAJESTIC FLAME 21% model chance · market 22%

★ Best value THESPIAN QUEEN model 16% vs market 9% · +80%

Why the model rates MAJESTIC FLAME top (21% chance)

✓ Daniel Tudhope riding well, 17% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Richard Hughes readies first-timers, 12% with debutants
✓ Richard Hughes's yard in form, 14% winners in the fortnight
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MAJESTIC FLAME ★ Top Rated J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Richard Hughes 4.5 ·market 22%	21%	22%	4.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-3%	9th
2	RHYTHM OF MY HEART J: Hector Crouch · T: David Menuisier 4.0 ·market 25%	18%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-29%	2nd
3	THESPIAN QUEEN J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton 11.0 ·market 9%	16%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+80%	6th
4	LILY PINK J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston 3.2 ·market 31%	12%	31%	3.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-60%	5th
5	GRETA TINTIN J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding 51.0 ·market 2%	8%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+326%market disagrees	13th
6	SILVERELLA J: David Probert · T: Marcus Tregoning 15.0 ·market 7%	8%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+17%	Winner
7	ALL ANGELS J: Cieren Fallon · T: Ed Walker 29.0 ·market 3%	5%	3%	29.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+53%	8th
8	SINGING BLUES J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Tom Ward 67.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+187%	12th
9	FASTIDYAH J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Michael Bell 34.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+38%	4th
10	ROKU NANA J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian 6.0 ·market 17%	4%	17%	6.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-76%	3rd
11	STARLIGHT BAY J: Gina Mangan · T: Marcus Tregoning 51.0 ·market 2%	3%	2%	51.0	+53%	11th
12	CLOUD CHORUS J: Clifford Lee · T: Gary & Josh Moore 91.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	91.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+129%	7th
13	ALIDOOLALLY J: Kieran O'Neill · T: David Menuisier 126.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+198%	10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org