Sandown 13:40 — Value Analysis

Tattersalls £40,000 Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)

Saturday 29 August 2026

Maiden GD 7.0f Class 2 9 runners
🏁 Result: Tall Trees won (SP 2.5)
Model's most likely TALL TREES 21% model chance · market 38%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates TALL TREES top (21% chance)
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Jamie Spencer cold lately, 7% in the last two months

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
—
THI QAR NR
J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden
5.0 ·market 20%
27%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37% Withdrawn
1
TALL TREES ★ Top Rated
J: Jamie Spencer · T: Brian Meehan
2.6 ·market 38%
21%
38%
2.6
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46% Winner
2
BASSRAH
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes
13.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
13.0
 +22% 4th
3
ALANAH BANANAH
J: Rossa Ryan · T: William Haggas
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +30% 7th
4
EMPRESS JINGU
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -6% 5th
5
FLOWER SHOW
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby
2.6 ·market 38%
7%
38%
2.6
▼ Edge decreasing
 -82% 3rd
6
ORTANIQUE
J: Luke Morris · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
151.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +796%market disagrees 8th
7
LADY RANYA
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
41.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +129% 6th
8
VICTORIA NIGHT
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon
7.5 ·market 13%
5%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -64% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org