Southwell 13:32 — Value Analysis
Oktoberfest 3rd And 10th October Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)
Monday 31 August 2026
- ✓ Preferred to Cosmic Mystery, a proven winner at this class
- ✓ Cieren Fallon riding well, 17% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DELIGHFULLY HOT
★ Top Rated
7.8
·market 13%
|
28% |
13% |
7.8
▲ Edge increasing
|
+113% | |
| 2 |
COSMIC MYSTERY
4.0
·market 25%
|
18% |
25% |
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-26% | |
| 3 |
QUIET SOUL
34.0
·market 3%
|
10% |
3% |
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+237% | |
| 4 |
VIKING BARBIE
4.5
·market 22%
|
9% |
22% |
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-59% | |
| 5 |
ESTUPENDA
34.0
·market 3%
|
8% |
3% |
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+156% | |
| 6 |
KOKUMI
5.5
·market 18%
|
7% |
18% |
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-62% | |
| 7 |
SIOUX MOON
17.0
·market 6%
|
6% |
6% |
17.0
|
-4% | |
| 8 |
SAYIDAH DUBAWI
5.5
·market 18%
|
5% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-71% | |
| 9 |
BEAUTIFUL EFFORT
9.5
·market 11%
|
5% |
11% |
9.5
|
-54% | |
| 10 |
CHIWARA
17.0
·market 6%
|
4% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-26% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org