Chepstow 13:45 — Value Analysis

Dragonbet Welsh Racing Festival 9th-11th Oct Nursery Handicap Stakes

Monday 31 August 2026

Nursery GTS 5.0f Class 6 6 runners
Model's most likely CRYSTAL KRAKEN 21% model chance · market 55%
★ Best value NAVAL COP model 18% vs market 15% · +16%
Why the model rates CRYSTAL KRAKEN top (21% chance)
  • ✓ Dylan Cunha readies first-timers, 4% with debutants
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
—
LION OF PERSIA NR
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Robert Cowell
6.0 ·market 17%
35%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +109% Withdrawn
1
CRYSTAL KRAKEN ★ Top Rated
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Dylan Cunha
1.8 ·market 55%
21%
55%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -62%
2
NAVAL COP
J: Alfie Redman(7) · T: Andrew Balding
6.5 ·market 15%
18%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +16%
3
COURSEYOUDO
J: William Cox · T: Tom Lacey
17.0 ·market 6%
12%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +107%
4
OUR FELLA
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: J S Moore
6.0 ·market 17%
11%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%
5
DEVON ANGEL
J: Laura Coughlan(3) · T: Rod Millman
5.0 ·market 20%
9%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -55%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org