Gowran Park 14:00 — Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Tuesday 1 September 2026

Maiden SFT 7.0f Class 0 16 runners
Model's most likely SNOWING 22% model chance · market 25%
★ Best value ALPINE WEDDING model 18% vs market 17% · +8%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ZENITH BLAZE is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 20% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates SNOWING top (22% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Zenith Blaze, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Best suited to the 7f in the race
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SNOWING ★ Top Rated
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
4.0 ·market 25%
22%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -12%
2
ZENITH BLAZE
J: Colin Keane · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
1.8 ·market 55%
20%
55%
1.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -63%
3
ALPINE WEDDING
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
6.0 ·market 17%
18%
17%
6.0
 +8%
4
MALA
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
6.5 ·market 15%
13%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -13%
5
SISTER NANCY
J: Jamie Powell · T: Daniel McLoughlin
126.0 ·market 1%
12%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1408%market disagrees
6
ITA FLORENCE
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J S Bolger
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42%
7
ACQUILYX
J: J M Sheridan · T: John Joseph Murphy
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +66%
8
SOCIAL CIRCLE
J: Chris Hayes · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -14%
—
ATLANTIC ROSE NR
J: Declan McDonogh · T: W McCreery
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15% Withdrawn
9
MOTHERS CALL
J: Luke McAteer · T: James M Barrett
81.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +171%
10
WECOULDAVEHADITALL
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Daniel McLoughlin
226.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
226.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +540%market disagrees
11
LADY CHANCALOT
J: James Ryan · T: Jack W Davison
151.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +318%market disagrees
12
ZELENTE
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Ross O'Sullivan
251.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +531%market disagrees
13
EVIES DELIGHT
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany
201.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +322%market disagrees
14
CURRACLOE
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
19.0 ·market 5%
2%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -65%
15
POPPED
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +159%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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