Ripon 14:10 — Value Analysis

Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 1 September 2026

Other Handicap SFT 10.0f Class 5 8 runners
Model's most likely HIS FINEST HOUR 35% model chance · market 33%
★ Best value COSMOS RAJ model 24% vs market 18% · +32%
Why the model rates HIS FINEST HOUR top (35% chance)
  • ✓ Has won over 1m2f before
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HIS FINEST HOUR ★ Top Rated
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Tina Jackson
3.0 ·market 33%
35%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +5%
2
COSMOS RAJ
J: Conor Whiteley(3) · T: David O'Meara
5.5 ·market 18%
24%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +32%
3
DRAUPNIR
J: Shay Farmer(3) · T: Michael & David Easterby
4.3 ·market 23%
13%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -42%
—
TRIPLE FORCE NR
J: Alex Jary · T: Craig Lidster
9.5 ·market 11%
11%
11%
9.5
 +8% Withdrawn
4
YERMANTHERE
J: Rhys Elliott(3) · T: Tim Easterby
5.5 ·market 18%
9%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -48%
5
POETS DAWN
J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby
9.0 ·market 11%
7%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
6
NO KNEE NEVER
J: Seamus Cronin · T: James Owen
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
 -23%
7
PRECIOUS SPARTAN
J: Cian Horgan(3) · T: Patrick Neville
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org