Lingfield 14:20 — Value Analysis

Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 1 September 2026

Amateur STD 10.0f Class 6 10 runners
Model's most likely ALAZWAR 29% model chance · market 12%
★ Best value ALAZWAR model 29% vs market 12% · +133%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: DIVOT is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 15% vs the market's 40% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates ALAZWAR top (29% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Divot, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 35 days since its last run
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Miss Brodie Hampson cold lately, 9% in the fortnight

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ALAZWAR ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson
8.0 ·market 12%
29%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +133%
2
DIVOT
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: William Knight
2.5 ·market 40%
15%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -62%
3
BOWNDER
J: Mr Frederick Tett · T: Jonathan Portman
4.0 ·market 25%
12%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
4
NORFLONDONFOREVER
J: Mr James Hills(5) · T: Faye Bramley
6.0 ·market 17%
11%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -36%
5
WRIST ART
J: Miss Ruby Criscuolo(5) · T: James Owen
13.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32%
6
LITTLE SHE
J: Miss Alice Tregoning(5) · T: Marcus Tregoning
29.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +100%
7
WARRNAMBOOL
J: Miss Grace Littmoden(5) · T: Nick Littmoden
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -19%
8
IMPERIAL DECISION
J: Mr Louis Burke(7) · T: Keiran Burke
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +146%
9
KURIOS LADY
J: Mr Fletcher Yarham · T: Michael Madgwick
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
10
THE PUG
J: Miss Jemima Stewart(7) · T: Olly Murphy
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +38%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org