Newcastle 13:45 — Value Analysis

Border Minstrel Pub Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 2 September 2026

Other Handicap STD 10.0f Class 6 8 runners
🏁 Result: Koko Blue won (SP 2.38)
Model's most likely KOKO BLUE 37% model chance · market 40%
★ Best value ITS A LOVE THING model 21% vs market 12% · +70%
Why the model rates KOKO BLUE top (37% chance)
  • ✓ Tom Clover readies first-timers, 11% with debutants
  • ✓ Tom Clover's yard in form, 18% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
KOKO BLUE ★ Top Rated
J: Molly Keegan-Price(5) · T: Tom Clover
2.5 ·market 40%
37%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -6% Winner
2
ITS A LOVE THING
J: Cian Horgan · T: Sam England
8.0 ·market 12%
21%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +70% 3rd
3
RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE
J: Cara Tuke(5) · T: Iain Jardine
8.5 ·market 12%
11%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -6% 2nd
4
GAME MANAGEMENT
J: Jake Dickson(3) · T: Lizzie Quinlan
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -31% 4th
—
LOVE YOU MORE NR
J: Harry Vigors · T: Joseph Parr
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -50% Withdrawn
5
MILLBUIE
J: Rhys Elliott · T: Ewan Whillans
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7% 6th
6
BRIDGEFOOT RAMBLER
J: Conor Whiteley · T: Stephen Hanlon
26.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +51% 7th
7
KAMEEL
J: Jack Dace · T: Jessica Macey
8.0 ·market 12%
5%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -58% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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