Bath 14:00 — Value Analysis

Bath Country Race Day, What A Way To Make Weekend! EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Wednesday 2 September 2026

Maiden GD 5.5f Class 5 6 runners
🏁 Result: Etienne won (SP 1.04)
Model's most likely ETIENNE 44% model chance · market 96%
★ Best value ANNA BELARDO model 15% vs market 8% · +97%
Why the model rates ETIENNE top (44% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Tree Wizard, 20lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Saffie Osborne riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ETIENNE ★ Top Rated
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
1.0 ·market 96%
44%
96%
1.0
 -54% Winner
2
TREE WIZARD
J: Abdulla Rashid Al-Hajri(5) · T: Hilal Kobeissi
17.0 ·market 6%
29%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +397%market disagrees 4th
3
ANNA BELARDO
J: Gina Mangan · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
13.0 ·market 8%
15%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +97% 5th
4
POLLY THE SNIPER
J: William Cox · T: Tom Dascombe
34.0 ·market 3%
12%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +322%market disagrees 2nd
5
OUR FELLA
J: Isobelle Chalmers(7) · T: J S Moore
34.0 ·market 3%
9%
3%
34.0
 +203% 3rd
6
COTAI JAUNT
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Ollie Sangster
101.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +680%market disagrees 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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