Haydock 13:30 — Value Analysis

100% Racingtv Profits Back To Racing Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

Thursday 3 September 2026

Amateur SFT 11.5f Class 5 13 runners
🏁 Result: Star Start won (SP 6.0)
Model's most likely AUSTRIAN THEORY 22% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value REVELIO model 17% vs market 10% · +69%
Why the model rates AUSTRIAN THEORY top (22% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Flightofthephoenix, 5lb better in at the weights and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
  • ✕ Tim Easterby's yard quiet lately, 8% in the last two months
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
AUSTRIAN THEORY ★ Top Rated
J: Mr Thomas Easterby(3) · T: Tim Easterby
3.8 ·market 27%
22%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -19% 4th
2
FLIGHTOFTHEPHOENIX
J: Mr James Hills(5) · T: Charles Hills
4.3 ·market 23%
18%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -21% 6th
3
REVELIO
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: Tom Clover
10.0 ·market 10%
17%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +69% 5th
4
SPIRIT CATCHER
J: Mr Daniel Perrin(7) · T: Philip Kirby
6.0 ·market 17%
13%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -22% 2nd
5
STAR START
J: Miss Charli Parker(5) · T: Ruth Carr
5.0 ·market 20%
12%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40% Winner
—
RECOBELLA NR
J: Miss Natasha Cookson(5) · T: Philip Kirby
7.0 ·market 14%
8%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -44% Withdrawn
6
ID GO MANIAC
J: Miss Georgia King(5) · T: Alan King
8.0 ·market 12%
7%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -44% 9th
7
RED DEREK
J: Miss Teagan Padgett(5) · T: Lisa Williamson
51.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
51.0
 +198% 8th
—
ROLAND GARROS NR
J: Mr Cian Murphy(5) · T: Hayley Burton
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +60% Withdrawn
8
ALPINE SIERRA
J: Miss Kayleigh Williams(5) · T: Jim Goldie
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25% 3rd
9
SHAHBAZ
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson
21.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -20% 7th
10
CAVALRY CALL
J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Patrick Morris
126.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +300%market disagrees 11th
11
RIBBLE RIVER
J: Mr Jack Loughnane(7) · T: Lizzie Quinlan
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
 -4% 10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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