Newcastle 13:42 — Value Analysis
Border Minstrel Pub Handicap Stakes
Thursday 3 September 2026
- ✓ Preferred to Lawmans Blis, 4lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Has won over 1m4f before
- ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ The standard is a question mark for it
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SATYRESS
★ Top Rated
4.3
·market 23%
|
35% |
23% |
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
|
+51% | Winner |
| 2 |
LAWMANS BLIS
4.5
·market 22%
|
24% |
22% |
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+8% | 3rd |
| 3 |
GEMINI MAN
6.0
·market 17%
|
12% |
17% |
6.0
|
-26% | 2nd |
| 4 |
MR WITHINGTON
5.0
·market 20%
|
10% |
20% |
5.0
|
-50% | 5th |
| 5 |
BOUBOULE
17.0
·market 6%
|
8% |
6% |
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+29% | 9th |
| 6 |
BRUCE BANNER
8.0
·market 12%
|
8% |
12% |
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-40% | 4th |
| 7 |
PORTERS SONG
41.0
·market 2%
|
7% |
2% |
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+195% | 8th |
| 8 |
BRUNELLO BREEZE
51.0
·market 2%
|
5% |
2% |
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+168% | 7th |
| 9 |
NEDDIES BOY
6.5
·market 15%
|
5% |
15% |
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-69% | 6th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org