Salisbury 13:53 — Value Analysis

Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Whips To Be Carried But Not Used - A Racing Excellence Series)

Thursday 3 September 2026

Other Handicap GTS 8.0f Class 5 8 runners
🏁 Result: A La Noche won (SP 5.5)
Model's most likely PRINCE RASAM 39% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value PRINCE RASAM model 39% vs market 29% · +37%
Why the model rates PRINCE RASAM top (39% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ Well suited by today's ground
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PRINCE RASAM ★ Top Rated
J: Toby Moore · T: Gary & Josh Moore
3.5 ·market 29%
39%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +37% 3rd
2
DECALOGUE
J: Alfie Redman · T: Jamie Osborne
4.5 ·market 22%
19%
22%
4.5
 -16% 2nd
3
VIRTUE PATIENCE
J: Charlie Tucker · T: Amanda Perrett
7.0 ·market 14%
14%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -0% 4th
4
A LA NOCHE
J: Oliver Hoodless(5) · T: Oliver Cole
5.5 ·market 18%
9%
18%
5.5
 -52% Winner
5
MUSASHI
J: Miss Amy Tucker(7) · T: David Evans
26.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +108% 5th
6
SPECIAL GHAIYYATH
J: Joe Bradnam · T: P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck
29.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +107% 7th
7
THISCOULDBEFUN
J: Isobelle Chalmers · T: J S Moore
6.0 ·market 17%
7%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -58% 6th
8
CITY OF GOD
J: James Glennon(5) · T: Michael Attwater
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33% 8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org