Ascot 13:55 — Value Analysis

Racing To School Celebrates 25 Years Lady Amateur Jockeys Handicap Stakes (For Female Amateur Jockeys)

Friday 4 September 2026

Amateur GD 8.0f Class 4 11 runners
Model's most likely CANCAN IN THE RAIN 22% model chance · market 22%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates CANCAN IN THE RAIN top (22% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Tex, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Gihan Arnolda's yard in form, 14% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CANCAN IN THE RAIN ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Georgie Benson · T: Gihan Arnolda
4.5 ·market 22%
22%
22%
4.5
 -2%
2
TEX
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: George Baker
3.5 ·market 29%
19%
29%
3.5
 -34%
3
DANNICK
J: Mr Hezekiah March(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore
5.0 ·market 20%
17%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -13%
4
EAZY ON THE EYE
J: Miss Thomasina Eyston · T: Heather Main
7.5 ·market 13%
14%
13%
7.5
 +1%
5
LITTLE EMPIRE
J: Miss A B O'Connor · T: Anthony McCann
10.0 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.0
 +2%
6
ATMOSPHERE
J: Miss Georgia King · T: Richard Spencer
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
7
STRATOCRACY
J: Miss Lauren Frost · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
8
PORT LOUIS
J: Miss Chelsea Edwards(7) · T: Bernard Llewellyn
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +255%
9
THE BITTER MOOSE
J: Miss Megan Jordan · T: Patrick Chamings
19.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -9%
10
BOLD SUITOR
J: Miss Taryn Cole(7) · T: Craig Benton
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +112%
11
CALYXOH
J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Patrick Morris
19.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -29%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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