Bangorondee 13:40 — Value Analysis
Friday 4 September 2026
Model's most likely
HOE JOLY SMOKE
49% model chance · market 69%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates HOE JOLY SMOKE top (49% chance)
- ✓ Preferred to Iamyouare, 6lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 30% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
HOE JOLY SMOKE
★ Top Rated
1.4
·market 69%
|
49% |
69% |
1.4
|
-29% | |
| 2 |
IAMYOUARE
2.8
·market 36%
|
31% |
36% |
2.8
|
-13% | |
| 3 |
THAT OLD CHESTNUT
15.0
·market 7%
|
14% |
7% |
15.0
|
+109% | |
| 4 |
SOVEREIGNLIGHTCAFE
19.0
·market 5%
|
9% |
5% |
19.0
|
+73% | |
| 5 |
WHINNY HOUSTON
151.0
·market 1%
|
8% |
1% |
151.0
|
+1128%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org