Haydock 13:30 — Value Analysis

Thomas Armstrong Group Haydock Park Training Series Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Apprentice Training Race - Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)

Friday 4 September 2026

Other Handicap SFT 14.0f Class 5 8 runners
Model's most likely ZIMMERMAN 32% model chance · market 40%
★ Best value DANCE TIME model 23% vs market 18% · +25%
Why the model rates ZIMMERMAN top (32% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Dance Time, better proven at this class and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Has won over 1m6f before
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 3 days ago
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ZIMMERMAN ★ Top Rated
J: Jake Dickson · T: Tim Easterby
2.5 ·market 40%
32%
40%
2.5
 -20%
2
DANCE TIME
J: Conor Whiteley · T: David Loughnane
5.5 ·market 18%
23%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
3
GENTLE WARRIOR
J: Toby Moore · T: K. R. Burke
4.5 ·market 22%
14%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -37%
4
DREAM HARDER
J: Hope Regan(5) · T: Mark Loughnane
13.0 ·market 8%
12%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +51%
5
CASCADE HALL
J: Shay Farmer · T: Jim Goldie
8.5 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.5
 -23%
6
EXPRESSIONLESS
J: Kyle McHugh · T: Dylan Cunha
26.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +100%
7
YELLOW CARD
J: Isobelle Chalmers(3) · T: Mickey Bowen
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%
8
EASWRITH DESTINY
J: Donagh Murphy · T: David Menuisier
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org