Haydock 13:25 — Value Analysis

Betfair Backs Opinions Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)

Saturday 5 September 2026

Group 3 HVY 8.0f Class 1 9 runners
Model's most likely NEEDLE MATCH 19% model chance · market 29%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates NEEDLE MATCH top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Fondo Blanco, 11lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
  • ✓ Tom Marquand riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NEEDLE MATCH ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
3.5 ·market 29%
19%
29%
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33%
2
FONDO BLANCO
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian
11.0 ·market 9%
15%
9%
11.0
 +60%
3
COLORI FOREVER
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti
13.0 ·market 8%
13%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +68%
4
HANKELOW
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
7.0 ·market 14%
11%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
5
THE LOST KING
J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding
9.0 ·market 11%
10%
11%
9.0
 -10%
6
PERSICA
J: James Doyle · T: Richard Hannon
5.0 ·market 20%
8%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59%
7
REDEMPTION ROAD
J: Hector Crouch · T: Michael Keady
41.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +194%
8
DANCING GEMINI
J: William Buick · T: Roger Teal
5.5 ·market 18%
6%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -65%
9
BALMACARA
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +79%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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