Navan 13:30 — Value Analysis

Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden

Saturday 5 September 2026

Maiden GD 6.0f Class 0 15 runners
Model's most likely ROEILLAUN 15% model chance · market 56%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ROEILLAUN top (15% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 13 days ago
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
—
ESSENCE OF TIME NR
J: Chris Hayes · T: A Oliver
4.5 ·market 22%
19%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -17% Withdrawn
1
ROEILLAUN ★ Top Rated
J: Colin Keane · T: Noel Meade
1.8 ·market 56%
15%
56%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -72%
2
LADYS COURT
J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Paul W Flynn
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +13%
3
LUCYS PROMISE
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Adrian McGuinness
9.5 ·market 11%
10%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
4
ANA MORELLO
J: Diego Lima · T: Diego Dias
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
5
BELLE ISLAND
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
29.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +115%
6
YOUR A DAISY
J: Wayne Lordan · T: Robson De Aguiar
6.5 ·market 15%
5%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -67%
7
DESTINY CALLS
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Michael Butler
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +92%
—
MOYANNA CASTLE NR
J: Leigh Roche · T: Jamie Heavey
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
 +28% Withdrawn
8
MY GIRL GEORGIA
J: Liam Keniry · T: Miss Evanna McCutcheon
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +72%
9
MARCESCENCE
J: Gary Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell
11.0 ·market 9%
3%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -63%
10
RED LILY
J: Shane Foley · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -49%
11
SOMETHINGABOUTLOVE
J: Rory Cleary · T: C W J Farrell
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
 +76%
12
MIRISSA BEACH
J: Jamie Powell · T: Chris Timmons
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
13
MAGNA FORTUNA
J: Nathan Crosse · T: P F McEnery
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +57%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org