Thirsk 13:35 — Value Analysis
Personal Touches Day Of Elegance Nursery Handicap Stakes
Saturday 5 September 2026
- ✓ Connor Beasley riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Edward Bethell's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LOVE TANYA
★ Top Rated
3.8
·market 27%
|
25% |
27% |
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-7% | |
| 2 |
COCO NOVA
5.5
·market 18%
|
21% |
18% |
5.5
|
+13% | |
| 3 |
THE MONKEY KING
3.8
·market 27%
|
19% |
27% |
3.8
|
-28% | |
| 4 |
EMPIRE RISING
7.5
·market 13%
|
11% |
13% |
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-15% | |
| 5 |
PRINCE KAMEO
8.5
·market 12%
|
10% |
12% |
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-14% | |
| 6 |
OR ANOTHER
29.0
·market 3%
|
8% |
3% |
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+131% | |
| 7 |
SOUWESTER
23.0
·market 4%
|
7% |
4% |
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+57% | |
| 8 |
AKARAKA
11.0
·market 9%
|
6% |
9% |
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-39% | |
| 9 |
NORTHERN VIOLA
51.0
·market 2%
|
5% |
2% |
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+152% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org