Thirsk 13:35 — Value Analysis

Personal Touches Day Of Elegance Nursery Handicap Stakes

Saturday 5 September 2026

Nursery GTS 8.0f Class 5 9 runners
Model's most likely LOVE TANYA 25% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value COCO NOVA model 21% vs market 18% · +13%
Why the model rates LOVE TANYA top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Connor Beasley riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Edward Bethell's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
1
LOVE TANYA ★ Top Rated
J: Connor Beasley · T: Edward Bethell
3.8 ·market 27%
25%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
-7%
3
THE MONKEY KING
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Ralph Beckett
3.8 ·market 27%
19%
27%
3.8
-28%
4
EMPIRE RISING
J: Darragh Keenan · T: Charlie Clover
7.5 ·market 13%
11%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
-15%
5
PRINCE KAMEO
J: Kevin Stott · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
8.5 ·market 12%
10%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
-14%
6
OR ANOTHER
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott
29.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
+131%
7
SOUWESTER
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
23.0 ·market 4%
7%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
+57%
8
AKARAKA
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Michael Bell
11.0 ·market 9%
6%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
-39%
9
NORTHERN VIOLA
J: James Sullivan · T: John & Sean Quinn
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
+152%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org