Fontwell 14:20 — Value Analysis

Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Sunday 6 September 2026

Handicap Hurdle nan 21.5f Class 5 6 runners
Model's most likely ROYAL RHYTHM 34% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value ROYAL RHYTHM model 34% vs market 27% · +26%
Why the model rates ROYAL RHYTHM top (34% chance)

Well weighted on ratings and preferred to the stablemate through trip suitability and ground preference, with recent runs in stronger company behind him; consistency concerns and a poor run two back remain negatives.

  • ✓ Preferred to Clever Relation, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
CLEVER RELATION
J: Toby McCain-Mitchell · T: Christian Williams
4.3 ·market 23%
26%
23%
4.3
+14%
3
COUNTY CHAMPS
J: Fern O'Brien · T: Chris Gordon
4.0 ·market 25%
15%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
-41%
4
JEFE TRIUNFO
J: Freddie Mitchell · T: Chris Gordon
4.5 ·market 22%
14%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
-37%
5
ATREIDES
J: Mr Laurie Gallacher(10) · T: Neil Mulholland
8.0 ·market 12%
11%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
-15%
6
KINGS ORDER
J: James Turner · T: Mrs C Williams
23.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
+88%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org