Fontwell 14:20 — Value Analysis
Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Sunday 6 September 2026
Well weighted on ratings and preferred to the stablemate through trip suitability and ground preference, with recent runs in stronger company behind him; consistency concerns and a poor run two back remain negatives.
- ✓ Preferred to Clever Relation, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ROYAL RHYTHM
★ Top Rated
3.8
·market 27%
|
34% |
27% |
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
|
+26% | |
| 2 |
CLEVER RELATION
4.3
·market 23%
|
26% |
23% |
4.3
|
+14% | |
| 3 |
COUNTY CHAMPS
4.0
·market 25%
|
15% |
25% |
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-41% | |
| 4 |
JEFE TRIUNFO
4.5
·market 22%
|
14% |
22% |
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-37% | |
| 5 |
ATREIDES
8.0
·market 12%
|
11% |
12% |
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-15% | |
| 6 |
KINGS ORDER
23.0
·market 4%
|
8% |
4% |
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+88% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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