York 14:05 — Value Analysis

Fine Details Car Valeting Sprint Handicap Stakes

Sunday 6 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 5.5f Class 4 22 runners
Model's most likely EXPLOSIVE FINNISH 16% model chance · market 14%
★ Best value EXPLOSIVE FINNISH model 16% vs market 14% · +15%
Why the model rates EXPLOSIVE FINNISH top (16% chance)

Young improver catching the eye with scope to progress, backed by Frost's sharp 14% strike with handicappers recently and well-weighted on ratings, though 44 days off poses a fitness question.

  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Kevin & Lauren Frost sharp with handicappers, 14% recently
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
EXPLOSIVE FINNISH ★ Top Rated
J: Joe Leavy · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost
7.0 ·market 14%
16%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +15%
2
MANAGING DIRECTOR
J: P J McDonald · T: Geoff Oldroyd
8.5 ·market 12%
15%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
3
BONNIES BOY
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +41%
4
KINNALARGY
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +28%
5
LITTLE MI MI
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine
19.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +45%
6
SPORTS COACH
J: Harry Russell · T: Antony Brittain
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
7
CALL TO ACTION
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby
9.5 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.5
 -41%
8
CURIOUS ROVER
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott
19.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -2%
9
HAVANA RUM
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
5.5 ·market 18%
5%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -73%
10
UTMOST RESPECT
J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +47%
11
VINGEGAARD
J: Ryan Sexton · T: Paul Midgley
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +10%
12
KANISHKA
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Ian Williams
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
13
ROACH POWER
J: J F Egan · T: Michael Wigham
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +60%
14
DURAN
J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler
21.0 ·market 5%
2%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -50%
15
MAHARAJAS EXPRESS
J: David Egan · T: Ian Williams
26.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42%
16
PARISIAC
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Iain Jardine
13.0 ·market 8%
2%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -75%
17
ORIENTAL PRINCE
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie
23.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -55%
18
TANJEN
J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby
15.0 ·market 7%
2%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -75%
19
TRUE PROMISE
J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: Fionn McSharry
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3%
—
VENTURA EXPRESS NR
J: Cam Hardie · T: Paul Midgley
— ·market —
2%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
20
COPPER KNIGHT
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
10.0 ·market 10%
1%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -89%
21
HARB
J: Rowan Scott · T: Tristan Davidson
10.0 ·market 10%
1%
10%
10.0
 -90%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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