York 13:30 — Value Analysis

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing "confined" Ebf Maiden Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Once) (GBB Race)

Sunday 6 September 2026

Maiden GD 7.0f Class 2 11 runners
Model's most likely MEZZO FORTE 25% model chance · market 22%
★ Best value MEZZO FORTE model 25% vs market 22% · +12%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: IZUBA is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 11% vs the market's 44% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates MEZZO FORTE top (25% chance)

Better form than the defeat last time suggests. Fallon's 16% strike rate in the last two months backs him, and Haggas fired 19% winners in the fortnight, though the trip and consistency issues warrant caution.

  • ✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
  • ✓ Cieren Fallon riding well, 16% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ William Haggas's yard in form, 19% winners in the fortnight
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MEZZO FORTE ★ Top Rated
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
4.5 ·market 22%
25%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +12%
2
FIVE YEARS
J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke
101.0 ·market 1%
12%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1079%market disagrees
3
GHOST RAIDER
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Ralph Beckett
9.5 ·market 11%
12%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
4
IZUBA
J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding
2.2 ·market 44%
11%
44%
2.2
 -75%
5
SCENIC ROUTE
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
6.0 ·market 17%
10%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -41%
6
KING KENNY
J: Cam Hardie · T: Antony Brittain
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
7
BAYRAKTAR
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
5.0 ·market 20%
5%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -73%
8
CHAOS INN COURT
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ivan Furtado
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +267%
9
UNICORN MILKSHAKE
J: Harry Russell · T: Brian Ellison
101.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +304%market disagrees
10
NICE NEASY DOES IT
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +213%
11
PETES ANGEL
J: Barry McHugh · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
81.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
81.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +119%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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