Newton Abbot 14:00 — Value Analysis

Sky Sports Racing Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Monday 7 September 2026

Other Hurdle GD 17.0f Class 4 7 runners
Model's most likely MOMENT OF LIGHT 30% model chance · market 60%
★ Best value HELLO GARDA model 16% vs market 12% · +34%
Why the model rates MOMENT OF LIGHT top (30% chance)

Moment Of Light ticks the boxes on trip and ground for Skeltons, who know how to win, though 107 days away and untested at this class leave questions hanging.

  • ✓ Preferred to Timely Salute, better on the ground
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 2m1f
  • ✓ Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton win 30% together
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MOMENT OF LIGHT ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
1.7 ·market 60%
30%
60%
1.7
 -50%
2
TIMELY SALUTE
J: Freddie Mitchell(3) · T: Max Comley
3.2 ·market 31%
28%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -8%
3
HELLO GARDA
J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
8.5 ·market 12%
16%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +34%
4
NICOLAI
J: Bradley Harris(3) · T: Neil Mulholland
101.0 ·market 1%
10%
1%
101.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +955%market disagrees
5
ZOOTER
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Jack Jones
23.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
23.0
 +137%
6
JERSEYGEORDIE
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Harry Derham
22.5 ·market 4%
8%
4%
22.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +88%
7
RAJBELLO
J: Liam Harrison · T: Fergal O'Brien
34.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +159%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org