Windsor 14:12 — Value Analysis

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Monday 7 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 6.0f Class 5 15 runners
Model's most likely ARNAZ 25% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value ARNAZ model 25% vs market 18% · +36%
Why the model rates ARNAZ top (25% chance)

Recent form shows back-to-back wins two and three runs back before a sixth-place finish, and today's ground suits; however, the yard is quiet at 9% in the last two months and stepping into stronger company presents a tough ask.

  • ✓ Preferred to Come On Eibhlin, better on the ground
  • ✓ Mark Loughnane readies first-timers, 6% with debutants
  • ✓ Handles the good well
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Mark Loughnane's yard quiet lately, 9% in the last two months

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ARNAZ ★ Top Rated
J: Hope Regan(7) · T: Mark Loughnane
5.5 ·market 18%
25%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +36%
2
COME ON EIBHLIN
J: Jack Callan · T: Dylan Cunha
6.0 ·market 17%
11%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32%
3
DISTANT RUMBLE
J: Owen Lewis(5) · T: Roger Teal
5.5 ·market 18%
10%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -47%
4
REBEL PATH
J: Olivia Haines(5) · T: Stuart Williams
7.5 ·market 13%
9%
13%
7.5
 -29%
5
MONSIEUR PATAT
J: Ashley Lewis · T: Adrian Wintle
7.0 ·market 14%
9%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -38%
6
YES WALIIM
J: Oliver Hoodless(7) · T: Richard Hughes
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -32%
7
STOCK MARKET
J: Myla Coppins(5) · T: Tony Carroll
12.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
—
GOOD EARTH NR
J: Connor Planas · T: Michael Herrington
7.0 ·market 14%
5%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63% Withdrawn
8
HAVANA HALO
J: Ben Ffrench Davis(3) · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -36%
9
JIMMY KNOCKER
J: Kyle McHugh(5) · T: Andi Brown
17.0 ·market 6%
5%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
10
NOELIES DREAM
J: Christian Howarth · T: Dylan Cunha
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +23%
11
ZOULU WARRIOR
J: Mason Paetel · T: Heather Main
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
12
PUNCHBOWL FLYER
J: Alexandra Egan(5) · T: John O'Shea
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -53%
—
LAHINA BAY NR
J: Seamus Cronin · T: Rachel Cook & John Bridger
5.5 ·market 18%
2%
18%
5.5
 -87% Withdrawn
13
RORYS ROYALE
J: Charlie Tucker(7) · T: Simon Hodgson
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +46%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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