Perth 14:20 — Value Analysis

Auto Services Perth Supporting Dundee Bairns Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)

Monday 7 September 2026

Novice Hcap Chase GD 20.0f Class 3 2 runners
Model's most likely FOLLOW YOUR LUCK 76% model chance · market 52%
★ Best value FOLLOW YOUR LUCK model 76% vs market 52% · +45%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: DUNKERQUE is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 19% vs the market's 56% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates FOLLOW YOUR LUCK top (76% chance)
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ Brian Hughes and Patrick Neville win 15% together
  • ✕ Brian Hughes cold lately, 8% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FOLLOW YOUR LUCK ★ Top Rated
J: Brian Hughes · T: Patrick Neville
1.9 ·market 52%
76%
52%
1.9
 +45%
2
DUNKERQUE
J: Sean Quinlan · T: Jennie Candlish
1.8 ·market 56%
19%
56%
1.8
 -65%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org