Leicester 13:12 — Value Analysis
British EBF Ron Brooks Motor Group Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Tuesday 8 September 2026
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✓ Kevin Ryan readies first-timers, 10% with debutants
- ✕ Tom Eaves cold lately, 7% in the last two months
- ✕ Kevin Ryan's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LIZZIE BENNET
★ Top Rated
3.2
·market 31%
|
22% |
31% |
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-30% | |
| 2 |
FERRYSTREAM
8.0
·market 12%
|
16% |
12% |
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+31% | |
| 3 |
SWELTERING
4.5
·market 22%
|
15% |
22% |
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-34% | |
| 4 |
LADY NENAZ
81.0
·market 1%
|
10% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+736%market disagrees | |
| 5 |
LA TORRE
3.8
·market 27%
|
10% |
27% |
3.8
|
-64% | |
| 6 |
BLUE VIXEN
41.0
·market 2%
|
8% |
2% |
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+226% | |
| 7 |
FROM AFAR
6.5
·market 15%
|
8% |
15% |
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-50% | |
| 8 |
ZIRCONIC
19.0
·market 5%
|
6% |
5% |
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+23% | |
| — |
DIVINE CONCERTO
NR
81.0
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
81.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+246% | Withdrawn |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org