Goodwood 13:30 — Value Analysis

Cleansing Service Group Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Tuesday 8 September 2026

Novice Stakes GD 10.0f Class 3 3 runners
Model's most likely WRECK IT RONNIE 52% model chance · market 11%
★ Best value WRECK IT RONNIE model 52% vs market 11% · +395%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: NAJIDI STORM is the market favourite (1.1) but the model rates it only 35% vs the market's 95% — it may be beatable.

Why the model rates WRECK IT RONNIE top (52% chance)
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Handles the good well
  • ✕ Kieren Fox cold lately, 6% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
WRECK IT RONNIE ★ Top Rated
J: Kieren Fox · T: Charlie Pike
9.5 ·market 11%
52%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +395%
2
NAJIDI STORM
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
1.1 ·market 95%
35%
95%
1.1
 -64%
3
DREAM OF ALBION
J: David Probert · T: Amanda Perrett
34.0 ·market 3%
13%
3%
34.0
 +345%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org