Leicester 13:42 — Value Analysis

British EBF "Confined" Expotile Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (Div I)

Tuesday 8 September 2026

Novice Stakes GTS 7.0f Class 3 10 runners
Model's most likely IWASJUSTSAYING 20% model chance · market 31%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates IWASJUSTSAYING top (20% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
IWASJUSTSAYING ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Charlie Johnston
3.2 ·market 31%
20%
31%
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -35%
2
ASTABUEN
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker
6.5 ·market 15%
16%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +2%
3
UNITED AUTHORITY
J: James Doyle · T: Ralph Beckett
2.9 ·market 35%
13%
35%
2.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -62%
4
INKJET
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
5.5 ·market 18%
12%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -31%
5
TALAMON
J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey
7.5 ·market 13%
11%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -18%
6
ARABIAN BLUE
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Horton
21.0 ·market 5%
10%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +116%
7
WAQQAD
J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding
17.0 ·market 6%
9%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +52%
8
METICULOUSLY
J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker
17.0 ·market 6%
8%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34%
9
GILDED CALL
J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan
51.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +250%
10
REVOKED
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +26%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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