Doncaster 13:15 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs 'Carrie Red' EBF Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes

Thursday 10 September 2026

Nursery GTS 6.5f Class 2 13 runners
Model's most likely SPEED OF SOUND 20% model chance · market 31%
★ Best value SEXY CHICK model 18% vs market 12% · +56%
Why the model rates SPEED OF SOUND top (20% chance)

Ticks most boxes: eases in grade from a field rating 85 to 78 today, ran well three runs back and was third 21 days ago, with Richard Spencer's yard at 13% in the last two months. Consistency the one worry.

  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Richard Spencer's yard in form, 13% winners in the last two months
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SPEED OF SOUND ★ Top Rated
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
3.2 ·market 31%
20%
31%
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%
2
SEXY CHICK
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Richard Spencer
8.5 ·market 12%
18%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +56%
3
WONDERVISION
J: Nicola Currie · T: Jack Channon
5.5 ·market 18%
15%
18%
5.5
 -17%
4
ROLLTHEDICEBABY
J: J F Egan · T: Richard Hannon
12.0 ·market 8%
14%
8%
12.0
 +67%
5
ART OF LIFE
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +14%
6
KODI BEAR LIGHT
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: K. R. Burke
10.0 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +4%
7
DOWNONMAINSTREET
J: David Probert · T: Michael Bell
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +29%
8
BYMIDDAYTOMORROW
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -10%
9
ROOSIKE
J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hughes
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
 +173%
—
BAYSIDE NR
J: Cam Hardie · T: Rod Millman
29.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
29.0
 +32% Withdrawn
10
ANGEL SENSE
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -48%
11
LEUCOTHEA
J: Laura Pearson · T: Richard Hannon
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
 -16%
12
ANGEL IN MY HEART
J: Luke Morris · T: Adrian Keatley
19.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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