Windsor 13:42: Value Analysis

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Monday 14 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 8.0f Class 5 13 runners

Model's most likely KIANI KING 32% model chance · market 22%

★ Best value KIANI KING model 32% vs market 22% · +46%

Why the model rates KIANI KING top (32% chance)

Ticks most boxes: well treated on official ratings, a past winner over 1m and at this class, with Saffie Osborne striking at 17% in the fortnight. Patchy form figures, including a poor run three runs back, are the query.

✓ Saffie Osborne riding well, 17% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✓ Has won over 1m before
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	KIANI KING ★ Top Rated J: Saffie Osborne · T: Hughie Morrison 4.5 ·market 22%	32%	22%	4.5	+46%
2	CRAFTY BLUE J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon 8.0 ·market 12%	16%	12%	8.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+25%
3	KNOWLEDGE J: Jack Mitchell · T: Simon & Ed Crisford 16.0 ·market 6%	10%	6%	16.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+61%
4	MARSH BENHAM J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Baker 5.0 ·market 20%	9%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-55%
5	MERTOUN J: Rossa Ryan · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam 7.0 ·market 14%	9%	14%	7.0	-39%
6	NEWFANGLED J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman 4.3 ·market 23%	8%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-66%
7	RIBENSKA J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes 21.0 ·market 5%	7%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+52%
8	AMUSED J: Joe Leavy · T: Jim Boyle 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+26%
9	PHANTOM WATCH J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer 15.0 ·market 7%	5%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-23%
10	MARIA DA SILVA J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+13%
11	VIRTUE PATIENCE J: Tom Marquand · T: Amanda Perrett 19.0 ·market 5%	4%	5%	19.0	-19%
12	SQUIFFY J: George Wood · T: Heather Main 41.0 ·market 2%	4%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+65%
13	KODI FIRE J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Charles Hills 26.0 ·market 4%	3%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-22%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org