Sedgefield 14:00: Value Analysis

Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Handicap Hurdle Race

Monday 14 September 2026

Handicap Hurdle GD 27.0f Class 4 3 runners
Model's most likely FAIRLAWN SKIPPER 57% model chance · market 50%
★ Best value FAIRLAWN SKIPPER model 57% vs market 50% · +15%
Why the model rates FAIRLAWN SKIPPER top (57% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Paddy De Pole, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
  • ✓ Race-fit, out just 7 days ago
  • ✕ Shane Fenelon(5) and Mickey Bowen rarely click, 0%
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FAIRLAWN SKIPPER ★ Top Rated
J: Shane Fenelon(5) · T: Mickey Bowen
2.0 ·market 50%
57%
50%
2.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +15%
2
PADDY DE POLE
J: Freddie Keighley(5) · T: Paul Nicholls
2.5 ·market 40%
22%
40%
2.5
 -46%
3
PARIKARMA
J: Miss Imogen Mathias(7) · T: Samuel Drinkwater
5.0 ·market 20%
19%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org