Windsor 14:12: Value Analysis

Matchbook Betting Exchange Supporting UK Racing EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Monday 14 September 2026

Maiden GD 5.0f Class 4 10 runners
Model's most likely RED BLUE POINT 29% model chance · market 55%
★ Best value CRAZEE IN HAVANA model 15% vs market 8% · +85%
Why the model rates RED BLUE POINT top (29% chance)

Solid claims across the board: it drops in class after racing at a higher level, and James Tate's yard (16%) and Rossa Ryan (17%) are both in form in the last two months. Its last three runs offer little, though.

  • ✓ Rossa Ryan riding well, 17% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Dropped in class since last time
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
RED BLUE POINT ★ Top Rated
J: Rossa Ryan · T: James Tate
1.8 ·market 55%
29%
55%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -47%
2
CRAZEE IN HAVANA
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
12.0 ·market 8%
15%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +85%
3
DUCHESS OF IMMATIN
J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey
6.0 ·market 17%
14%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -18%
4
INSTANT FORCE
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke
6.0 ·market 17%
13%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
5
MAJOR LOOKTWICE
J: David Probert · T: Gary & Josh Moore
26.0 ·market 4%
7%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +90%
6
DEMONSTRATE
J: Oliver Hoodless(7) · T: Oliver Cole
126.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +622%market disagrees
7
URUMITA
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
6.0 ·market 17%
5%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -69%
8
GO GO GIRL
J: Joe Leavy · T: Clive Cox
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +31%
9
TIME TELLER
J: Callum Shepherd · T: George Baker
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +188%
10
AGENT ROSE
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Stuart Williams
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +150%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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