Punchestown 13:40: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Tuesday 15 September 2026

Maiden GD 8.0f Class 0 14 runners
🏁 Result: The Good Wife won (SP 3.0)
Our highest-rated★ Best value SILVER KISS Our price 7/2 · Available 7/1 We make it 22% · the market says 12% · +79%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: EXCEPTIONALLY is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 19% vs the market's 42%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates SILVER KISS top (22% chance)

Sets the standard: ran well for 3rd 23 days ago, the mile is ideal and racing at a higher level lately should cover a field rated 91, up from 81. Inconsistency and Chris Hayes' 8% in the fortnight hold it back.

  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Best suited to the 1m in the race
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Chris Hayes cold lately, 8% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SILVER KISS ★ Top Rated
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
Form: 333
8.0 ·market 12%
22%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +79% 2nd
2
EXCEPTIONALLY
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 0334
2.4 ·market 42%
19%
42%
2.4
 -55% 3rd
3
WUNDERSCHON
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 73
5.5 ·market 18%
14%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -21% 4th
4
ANGELS HAVE WINGS
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
Form: 5
23.0 ·market 4%
13%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +193% 7th
5
THE GOOD WIFE
J: W. J. Lee · T: P. Twomey
Form: 6
3.2 ·market 31%
10%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -68% Winner
6
BEACH
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 8
34.0 ·market 3%
6%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +113% 9th
7
RUNNINGUPTHILL
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: M D O'Callaghan
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40% 5th
,
HARITA NR
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
6.0 ·market 17%
4%
17%
6.0
 -75% Withdrawn
8
WHYTEMONTELLA
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -11% 8th
9
EAGLES VOICE
J: R. P. Whelan · T: John S O'Donoghue
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +437%market disagrees 12th
10
CROSS OF STARS
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3% 6th
11
SOLDIERS CHARM
J: James Ryan · T: Peter McCreery
401.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
401.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +980%market disagrees 14th
12
BEX NOIR
J: Robert Whearty · T: F G Hand
Form: 0
401.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
401.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +806%market disagrees 13th
13
EVER MY TREASURE
J: Conor Cusack(7) · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 0
251.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +429%market disagrees 11th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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