Redcar 13:53: Value Analysis

racingtv.com Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Tuesday 15 September 2026

Novice Stakes GD 5.0f Class 4 8 runners
Our highest-rated BLAKES MONARCH Our price 5/4 · Available 6/5 We make it 44% · the market says 44%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MUGHEER is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 16% vs the market's 56%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates BLAKES MONARCH top (44% chance)

A proven winner at this class who ran better than the result suggests 87 days ago, and Jason Hart is riding well at 16% in the last two months. The trip and Ivan Furtado's 7% in the fortnight are the queries.

  • ✓ Preferred to Mugheer, better proven at this class and better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Jason Hart riding well, 16% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Ivan Furtado's yard quiet lately, 7% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BLAKES MONARCH ★ Top Rated
J: Jason Hart · T: Ivan Furtado
Form: 260
2.2 ·market 44%
44%
44%
2.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -1%
2
MUGHEER
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
Form: 1 · D
1.8 ·market 56%
16%
56%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -72%
3
PAPHOS
J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll
Form: 5
8.5 ·market 12%
14%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
4
CYBERSPACE
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Bryan Smart
Form: 5
17.0 ·market 6%
8%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +40%
5
MALULEE
J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods
151.0 ·market 1%
7%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +956%market disagrees
6
REGAL ADVENTURE
J: Rowan Scott · T: Nigel Tinkler
Form: 7
126.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +517%market disagrees
7
RUM POINT
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Declan Carroll
Form: 0
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +287%
8
MUVE ON
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
29.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +37%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org