Sandown 13:45: Value Analysis

Trainor Stone & Tile Marble Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 16 September 2026

Other Handicap nan 5.0f Class 5 12 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value GOOD EARTH Our price 11/4 · Available 4/1 We make it 27% · the market says 20% · +33%
Why the model rates GOOD EARTH top (27% chance)

Proven over this exact course and distance, strong against this class and better suited by the trip than Hint Of Humour; ran 19 days ago and ticks most boxes, though winless in his last six.

  • ✓ Preferred to Hint Of Humour, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Proven over this exact course and distance
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
GOOD EARTH ★ Top Rated
J: Sean Levey · T: Michael Herrington
Form: 20564 · CD
5.0 ·market 20%
27%
20%
5.0
 +33%
2
HINT OF HUMOUR
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Tony Carroll
Form: 22533 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -24%
3
ARDNAMURCHAN
J: Nicola Currie · T: Henry Candy
Form: 41 · D
7.0 ·market 14%
15%
14%
7.0
 +3%
4
BELLINI SPIRIT
J: Rob Hornby · T: John & Rhys Flint
Form: 78039
81.0 ·market 1%
9%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +595%market disagrees
5
FOREVER GLAMOROUS
J: Gina Mangan · T: Christopher Mason
Form: 35135 · D
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -8%
6
ZOUSTAR DREAMS
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Ed Dunlop
Form: 41446 · D
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
 -52%
7
CABEZA DE LLAVE
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Michael Attwater
Form: 53855 · D
8.5 ·market 12%
6%
12%
8.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -48%
8
CONTROL ROOM
J: Seamus Cronin(5) · T: Grace Harris
Form: 23244 · D
9.5 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46%
9
HARRY BROWN
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Peter Crate
Form: 20538 · D
19.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -6%
10
JUST DREAMING
J: Oliver Carmichael(7) · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 7524
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +95%
11
LEVEL UP
J: Alexandra McDonnell(7) · T: David Evans
Form: 21671 · D
7.0 ·market 14%
5%
14%
7.0
 -68%
12
SECRET HANDSHEIKH
J: Cieren Fallon · T: John Gallagher
Form: 15155 · D
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org