Yarmouth 13:56: Value Analysis

Sea Deer Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 16 September 2026

Other Handicap GTS 6.0f Class 4 12 runners

Our highest-rated★ Best value MASSIMO BLUE Our price 2/1 · Available 9/4 We make it 33% · the market says 31% · +7%

Why the model rates MASSIMO BLUE top (33% chance)

Billy Loughnane's 16% strike rate in the fortnight allies to back-to-back wins, ground to suit and a handy mark; an unexposed type open to improvement, he steps up in grade from a field averaging 69 to 75.

✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 16% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✓ Well suited by today's ground
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MASSIMO BLUE ★ Top Rated J: Billy Loughnane · T: Dylan Cunha Form: 53311 · D 3.2 ·market 31%	33%	31%	3.2	+7%
2	DARK SIDE THUNDER J: George Wood · T: Jessica Macey Form: 25382 · CD 4.5 ·market 22%	16%	22%	4.5	-30%
3	FLAG OF ST GEORGE J: David Egan · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam Form: 58768 · D 5.5 ·market 18%	10%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-47%
4	AKABUSI J: Grace McEntee · T: Micky Fenton Form: 48408 · D 12.0 ·market 8%	10%	8%	12.0	+15%
5	DELUDED J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes Form: 92335 11.0 ·market 9%	9%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+0%
6	HUGH J: David Probert · T: Clive Cox Form: 4298 17.0 ·market 6%	7%	6%	17.0	+27%
7	KING OF CHAOS J: Jack Callan · T: Dylan Cunha Form: 17170 · D 29.0 ·market 3%	7%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+107%
8	STELLAR VISION J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Stuart Williams Form: 13006 9.0 ·market 11%	7%	11%	9.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-39%
9	UNDERWRITER J: Darragh Keenan · T: Michael Keady Form: 00400 · D 12.0 ·market 8%	6%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%
10	NUEVO SLOVO J: Callum Shepherd · T: Simon Pearce Form: 70046 51.0 ·market 2%	5%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+161%
11	THREE NON BLONDES J: Tom Marquand · T: Hayley Burton Form: 53717 · CD 13.0 ·market 8%	5%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-39%
12	TYGER BAY J: Joe Leavy · T: Conrad Allen Form: 19258 · D 26.0 ·market 4%	3%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-21%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org