Ayr 13:30: Value Analysis

Almins Vantage/Lallemand Magniva Classic EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Thursday 17 September 2026

Novice Stakes GTS 8.0f Class 3 11 runners

Our highest-rated BASSRAH Our price 5/2 · Available 15/8 We make it 29% · the market says 35%

No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates BASSRAH top (29% chance)

Eases in grade, having run well in better company (field averaging 91 then, 78 today) and three runs back. Patchy consistency and Paddy Bradley's 7% in the fortnight are niggles, but these are the best credentials here.

✓ Has run well in better company than today's
✓ Ran well three runs back
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Paddy Bradley cold lately, 7% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	BASSRAH ★ Top Rated J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes Form: 624 2.9 ·market 35%	29%	35%	2.9 ▼ Edge decreasing	-17%
2	PERFECT HEIR J: P. J. McDonald · T: Andrew Balding Form: 4 7.0 ·market 14%	13%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%
3	MAGWITCH J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan Form: 0 5.0 ·market 20%	13%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-37%
4	GIANT DAN BURN J: Saffie Osborne · T: Charlie Johnston Form: 4 26.0 ·market 4%	6%	4%	26.0	+53%
5	BOLLIN FARHH GO J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby 101.0 ·market 1%	5%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+442%market disagrees
6	ZARAK CROWN J: David Nolan · T: Richard & Peter Fahey Form: 4 4.3 ·market 23%	5%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-78%
7	SHARED ODYSSEY J: Oisin Orr · T: Hugo Palmer 7.0 ·market 14%	5%	14%	7.0	-66%
8	NEXTGEN KING J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+9%
9	TYRRHENIAN THUNDER J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley 5.5 ·market 18%	5%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-75%
10	YOUCANBETHEONE J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn 29.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+17%
11	HERES TO IT J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby Form: 4 34.0 ·market 3%	3%	3%	34.0	-14%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org