Naas 13:50: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Thursday 17 September 2026

Maiden GTY 6.0f Class 0 21 runners
Our highest-rated BLOOMING SALLY Our price 5/1 · Available 9/2 We make it 17% · the market says 18%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates BLOOMING SALLY top (17% chance)

Second when running 55 days ago in stronger company (field average 95 then, 81 today), and 6f is bang on trip. Inconsistency and the 0% pairing of Andrew Slattery and A. Slattery are knocks, but that form sets the standard.

  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 6f
  • ✕ Andrew Slattery and A. Slattery have a poor record together, 0% winners
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BLOOMING SALLY ★ Top Rated
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery
Form: 2
5.5 ·market 18%
17%
18%
5.5
 -6%
2
LUCA BRILLANTE
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
Form: 6722
4.5 ·market 22%
14%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
3
BOUGIE GALS
J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan
Form: 0
5.5 ·market 18%
12%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -35%
4
ENDLESS NIGHT
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J A Stack
Form: 8
17.0 ·market 6%
11%
6%
17.0
 +79%
5
ALFRESCO
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
Form: 7
51.0 ·market 2%
9%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +349%market disagrees
6
GREEN NATURE
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
Form: 09
126.0 ·market 1%
7%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +749%market disagrees
7
DESTINY CALLS
J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: Michael Butler
Form: 6
101.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +470%market disagrees
8
YOUVEONLYONEMOTHER
J: J M Sheridan · T: Paul W Flynn
Form: 00
301.0 ·market 0%
4%
0%
301.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1064%market disagrees
9
PIRATE ANNE BONNY
J: W. J. Lee · T: P. Twomey
6.0 ·market 17%
3%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -84%
10
MAXIMS OF EQUITY
J: Jamie Powell · T: M D O'Callaghan
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +65%
11
LEAP OF LIGHT
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington
7.5 ·market 13%
2%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -83%
12
LADY QUIGLEY
J: Robert Whearty · T: Paul W Flynn
Form: 9
126.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +171%
13
OPHELIA
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
13.0 ·market 8%
2%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -73%
14
ZELENTE
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Ross O'Sullivan
Form: 0
301.0 ·market 0%
2%
0%
301.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +491%market disagrees
15
BE IN LOVE
J: R. P. Whelan · T: Aidan O'Brien
4.0 ·market 25%
2%
25%
4.0
 -92%
16
LADY H
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 0
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
17
SHADOWBELLE
J: Ben Coen · T: A Oliver
67.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -11%
18
SADIE ROSE
J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: F G Hand
Form: 00
301.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
301.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +258%
19
VIOLET DOVE
J: Rory Cleary · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
81.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -6%
20
BRAGEIRO
J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Ross O'Sullivan
Form: 0
126.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +36%
21
SAVANNAH SUN
J: Cristiano Martins · T: Michael J Browne
Form: 00
201.0 ·market 0%
1%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +84%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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