Ayr 14:00: Value Analysis

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Thursday 17 September 2026

Other Handicap GTS 5.0f Class 5 21 runners
Our highest-rated THISTLE NIL Our price 13/2 · Available 22/1 We make it 13% · the market says 4%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates THISTLE NIL top (13% chance)

Ticks most boxes: an unexposed improver, well treated and fresh after winning 27 days ago. Steps up in grade but has won at this level and run well in better company, though a poor run two back underlines his inconsistency.

  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 27 days since its last run
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
THISTLE NIL ★ Top Rated
J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 91801 · CD
23.0 ·market 4%
13%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +198%
2
VINCE LAMOUR
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 90208 · D
10.0 ·market 10%
13%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
3
ORIENTAL PRINCE
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 48261 · D
4.3 ·market 23%
10%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -58%
4
STARTLING
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: John Wainwright
Form: 42211 · D
7.0 ·market 14%
9%
14%
7.0
 -37%
5
THE CALTONIAN
J: Clifford Lee · T: Linda Perratt
Form: 50543 · D
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -53%
6
GREAT PROFIT
J: Barry McHugh · T: Stephen Hanlon
Form: 22213
7.5 ·market 13%
6%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
7
KNICKS
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
Form: 64273 · D
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
 -43%
8
LIONS HOUSE
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Linda Perratt
Form: 40426 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
5%
6%
17.0
 -9%
9
SIMBAS PRIDE
J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods
Form: 43474
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +13%
10
THUNDERSTORM KATIE
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 62916 · CD
11.0 ·market 9%
5%
9%
11.0
 -50%
11
WHISKEY KISSES
J: Jason Hart · T: R. Mike Smith
Form: 93326
9.0 ·market 11%
4%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -61%
12
EDGEWATER DRIVE
J: Greg Fairley · T: Wilf Storey
Form: 43180 · D
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
 +33%
13
KINGS CROWN
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods
Form: 53405 · D
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
14
EMPERORS SON
J: Joanna Mason · T: Samantha & Jacqueline Coward
Form: 94109 · D
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
15
HI LORD
J: Tom Eaves · T: Stephen Hanlon
Form: 37305 · D
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -41%
16
JUSTMYLUCK
J: William Pyle · T: Linda Perratt
Form: 08599 · D
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -21%
17
LUCIUS AURELIUS
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Kevin Ryan
Form: 03898 · D
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +42%
18
NEVER DARK
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Iain Jardine
Form: 72637 · D
15.0 ·market 7%
2%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -70%
19
FALCON QUEEN
J: Andrew Mullen · T: R. Mike Smith
Form: 68497
26.0 ·market 4%
1%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -61%
20
OPAL STORM
J: P. J. McDonald · T: Brian Rothwell
Form: 18946 · D
21.0 ·market 5%
1%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -71%
21
POCKLEY
J: Lexie Clarkson(7) · T: Linda Perratt
Form: 01675 · D
67.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -26%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org