Ayr 13:20: Value Analysis

Ladbrokes 'Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer' Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes

Friday 18 September 2026

Nursery SFT 7.0f Class 4 9 runners
Our highest-rated DIPLOMATA Our price 9/4 · Available 11/8 We make it 31% · the market says 42%
★ Best value MISSOURI WALTZ Our price 11/2 · Available 7/1 We make it 15% · the market says 12% · +20%
Why the model rates DIPLOMATA top (31% chance)

Ticks most boxes here — Haggas is 19% in the last two months, Marquand 13%, and she looks well treated on official ratings after winning when she ran 15 days ago; the trip and this level are the queries.

  • ✓ William Haggas's yard in form, 19% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Tom Marquand riding well, 13% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DIPLOMATA ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
Form: 4531 · D
2.4 ·market 42%
31%
42%
2.4
 -25%
2
NECROMANCER
J: Jason Hart · T: Ralph Beckett
D
7.0 ·market 14%
15%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +6%
3
MISSOURI WALTZ
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley
Form: 12 · D
8.0 ·market 12%
15%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +20%
4
BAI TONG
J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke
Form: 527
19.0 ·market 5%
11%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +110%
5
ONE SHOT KODI
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Kevin Ryan
Form: 8742
6.0 ·market 17%
10%
17%
6.0
 -40%
6
GLOBAL SUCCESS
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: J. S. Moore
Form: 25253
19.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +30%
7
MOTOWN FILLY
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
Form: 272
6.5 ·market 15%
6%
15%
6.5
 -59%
8
SARAS SILVER GIRL
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby
Form: 545
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19%
9
TEXTING
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ivan Furtado
Form: 667
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +124%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org