Downpatrick 13:37: Value Analysis

T-Met Maiden Hurdle

Friday 18 September 2026

Maiden GD 18.0f Class 0 15 runners
Our highest-rated LYGON LAD Our price 11/2 · Available 4/1 We make it 16% · the market says 20%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: WORLD AS ONE is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 15% vs the market's 52%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates LYGON LAD top (16% chance)

Solid claims across the board: Kennedy and Elliott win 22% together, he was second when he ran 23 days ago, and both trip and ground suit him better than World As One, having raced at a higher level.

  • ✓ Preferred to World As One, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Jack Kennedy and Gordon Elliott win 22% together
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LYGON LAD ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 52
5.0 ·market 20%
16%
20%
5.0
 -20%
2
WORLD AS ONE
J: Daniel King · T: W. P. Mullins
Form: 24532
1.9 ·market 52%
15%
52%
1.9
 -72%
3
NIRISQUE
J: Mike O'Connor · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 026
8.5 ·market 12%
13%
12%
8.5
 +9%
4
KATIE CANT COUNT
J: Brian Hayes · T: W. P. Mullins
Form: 4F
11.0 ·market 9%
11%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +20%
5
BLUE TRIX
J: Danny Mullins · T: W. P. Mullins
Form: 7
21.0 ·market 5%
10%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +100%
6
LITTLE GINGER
J: Conor Smithers(7) · T: James Andrew Fahey
Form: 4410 · D
12.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +2%
7
FAIRY MEADOW
J: Donagh Meyler · T: Emmet Mullins
Form: 03
17.0 ·market 6%
8%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32%
8
LONE ASH LAD
J: Simon Torrens · T: Noel C. Kelly
Form: 7
67.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +329%market disagrees
9
BLUEBELL BREEZE
J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: A D Leahy
Form: 4074
29.0 ·market 3%
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +71%
10
BAILA CONMIGO
J: Eoghan Finegan(5) · T: Ciaran Murphy
Form: 13644
12.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
12.0
 -48%
11
SO GOLDEN
J: Carl Millar(5) · T: Noel C. Kelly
Form: 23160
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -13%
12
SKY CHARMER
J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: Gavin Cromwell
64.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
64.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +74%
13
MONEY SHUFFLER
J: Harry Sexton(7) · T: W M Roper
Form: 80009
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +60%
14
PIPER STREET
J: Tiernan Power Roche · T: P J Rothwell
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +163%
15
LISNADILL
J: Thomas O'Connor(7) · T: C A McBratney
Form: 60007
101.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
101.0
 +58%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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