Newbury 13:47: Value Analysis

Kennet Valley Syndicates Nick Robinson EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Friday 18 September 2026

Maiden GD 6.0f Class 4 16 runners
Our highest-rated AL WIDYAN Our price 10/3 · Available 2/1 We make it 24% · the market says 33%
★ Best value WAR CHEST Our price 4/1 · Available 9/2 We make it 21% · the market says 18% · +14%
Why the model rates AL WIDYAN top (24% chance)

Preferred to War Chest after a third when he ran 16 days ago, with Murphy and Balding winning 24% together and higher-grade company behind him, though consistency and the trip are queries in a field of newcomers.

  • ✓ Preferred to War Chest, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding win 24% together
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
AL WIDYAN ★ Top Rated
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
Form: 43
3.0 ·market 33%
24%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29%
2
WAR CHEST
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 3
5.5 ·market 18%
21%
18%
5.5
 +14%
3
OAKFORD
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Roger Teal
Form: 52
4.0 ·market 25%
11%
25%
4.0
 -56%
4
WORTHAWHISTLE
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
Form: 0
21.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +74%
5
HOPE IN HAVANA
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
9.0 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -45%
6
CORNICHON
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian
9.0 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%
7
COATIMUNDI
J: Jason Watson · T: Charles Hills
Form: 08
151.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +698%market disagrees
8
RED WIZARD
J: Hector Crouch · T: Harry Charlton
11.0 ·market 9%
5%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46%
9
HALLOWEEN JACK
J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker
Form: 4
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +26%
10
STARLETTE SKY
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Gary & Josh Moore
55.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
55.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +120%
11
ADMIRAL LEACH
J: Robert Havlin · T: Ed Dunlop
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +498%market disagrees
12
CHEVERE
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Owen Burrows
Form: 8
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +50%
13
SOLO QUEST
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
23.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -34%
14
THE RUSTY ROLEEX
J: David Probert · T: J. S. Moore
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +74%
15
STARBOLT
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ed Dunlop
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -3%
16
ANGEL CHILDE
J: Finley Marsh · T: Heather Main
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
 +37%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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